Nigeria’s economic growth slows slightly in first quarter

Gross domestic product expanded by 3.89% year-on-year in the first three months of the year, down from 4.07% in the final quarter of 2025, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

The figures show that Africa’s most populous country continues to recover, but growth remains below the ambitious levels targeted by President Bola Tinubu.

Reform agenda under pressure

Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu has introduced a series of major economic reforms aimed at strengthening public finances and attracting investment.

His administration has removed costly fuel and power subsidies, devalued the naira and pushed through changes to the tax system. The measures were designed to stabilise government revenue and support long-term growth, but they have also placed pressure on households and businesses through higher living costs.

Nigeria’s economy grew 3.87% in real terms in 2025, up from 3.38% in 2024, suggesting some improvement in momentum. However, the pace remains well below Tinubu’s target of 7% annual growth by 2027.

Oil output slips

Nigeria’s oil sector also showed signs of weakness in the first quarter.

Average daily crude production stood at 1.55 million barrels per day, compared with 1.58 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, the statistics agency said.

Oil remains a key source of foreign exchange and government revenue for Nigeria, meaning any decline in output can weigh on broader economic performance.

Election year focus

The latest data comes as Tinubu prepares to seek a second and final four-year term in the presidential election scheduled for January next year.

The government will be under pressure to show that its reform programme can deliver stronger growth, lower inflation and improved living standards before voters return to the polls.